Morocco Middle East positioning is built on historical ties, strategic interests and economic imperatives, and the Gulf — above all the United Arab Emirates — is now its fastest-moving part. Competition between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey, and between the United States and China, frames the wider context. GGSF Policy Brief N°04 examines how that positioning balances Gulf partnerships against regional tensions.
What follows are the brief’s key takeaways. The full analysis — the options, the points of vigilance and the recommendations — is in the document.
Key takeaways on Morocco Middle East positioning
- The Gulf carries economic weight. The GCC controls approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Morocco, a net energy importer, draws on Gulf investment and aid to finance diversification.
- The UAE is the pivotal partner. Emirati FDI stock in Morocco reached roughly 30 billion US Dollars in 2024, against 14 billion in 2021. King Mohammed VI’s December 2023 Abu Dhabi visit yielded a joint declaration and memoranda of understanding.
- 2020 reshaped the alignment. Morocco’s normalisation with Israel, brokered by the United States, followed the UAE’s own Abraham Accords strategy and brought recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. The UAE too has turned to diplomacy and soft power since 2021.
- Morocco reads as a middle power. Under Buzan and Wæver’s Regional Security Complex Theory, states are too interdependent to be analysed in isolation. Morocco’s neutrality in the 2017 Qatar crisis, sending food supplies despite the blockade, preserved its credibility with the GCC.
- Security cooperation runs deep. Morocco joined the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen until 2019 and the anti-Islamic State coalition, with military agreements and joint training with the UAE. Talks continue on 30 Mirage 2000-9E jets for the Royal Moroccan Air Force by 2027.
- Capital now moves both ways. Moroccan outward FDI to the UAE rose from 525 million dirhams in 2018 to 1.55 billion in 2021. The UAE backs the 25 billion US Dollars African-Atlantic Gas Pipeline and a May 2025 desalination consortium worth 2 billion US Dollars.
- Iran is the sharpest risk. Morocco severed ties with Iran in 2018, citing Tehran’s backing of the Polisario Front through Hezbollah, and 2024 reports pointed to Iranian training of Polisario fighters via Syrian intermediaries.
- Balancing Europe stays delicate. EU-Morocco trade reached 60 billion US Dollars in 2024, with France and Spain the primary partners, while Gulf capital offers rapid development without Europe’s regulatory conditions. GCC inflows fell 12% during the 2014-2016 oil price slump.
What to hold in view
Morocco’s room to manoeuvre comes not from choosing between partners but from sequencing them. Gulf capital funds the Kingdom’s water and energy infrastructure; European trade and US security ties remain the foundation beneath it. A prolonged oil-price slump, an escalation over the Sahara, or a backlash among non-aligned African states would each narrow that space.
